One day, Lemonni noticed an interesting phenomenon: why are there so many "November babies" among her friends? And she made a hypothesis herself: many people were born in November because of Valentine's Day.
So she started to search for the answer on internet. It turned out that the most common birthday month is August, and the most common birthday is October 5. While the data is based on North American database, which is not valid to test Lemonni's hypothesis, it is still interesting to see different arguments people have about this "birthday myth".
Some people argue, just like Lemonni does, that the most common birthday falls in a range of dates 9 months after Valentine's Day. However, if that top birthday months range from July to October is true, and given that normal pregnancy is 38-42 weeks long, some people argued that the most common birthday should be 9 months after New Years. Since in North America, people usually have Christmas/New Year breaks, and they would have more oppoturnities to conceive or, screw up birth control if traveling. Bear in mind though, that the Valentine's Day/New Year's Day theory doesn't imply that people only have sex on those specific days. It implies that those who get pregnant are more likely to have sex on those days than any other day of the year.
Some people point out that Valentine's Day is cultural specific, since many other countries do not have Valentine's Day. They propose that the birthday fluctuations should correlate with seasons. That is, cold winters keep people indoors, and therefore, there's a higher possibility to get pregnant. If this is true, then the birthday pattern will be very different in other regions, especialy those in Southern Hemisphere. While the seasons may be a factor, another theory suggests that natural disasters are the reason that cause birthday fluctuations. People are more likely to conceive during storms, blackouts, earthquakes, and blizzards that keep them indoors, perhaps with no TV, no lights, no video games...
So, do the spikes in bithday pattern imply accidental conception, or deliberate attempt? Some people reason that if there's a pattern, then it's due to deliberate attempt to let babies born at a certain time of a year. Since birth control methods are more reliable nowadays than years ago, "wanting to get busy" is no longer equivalent to "achieving conception". In North America, most people want to give birth during summer time, assuming June to September. However, the chance of conceiving is about 15-20% month. So if they aim for June to September, they probably won't succeed in the first month or two attempt. This explains why the top four birthday months cluster around July to October in North America.
A conclusion can not be reached until there's more valid worldwide data and longitudinal data. But at least Lemonni has a different thought now: baby booms aren't likely to correlate with Valentine's Day.
Which theory do you agree with more?
Comments (10)
wow~~ such an interesting theory!!
I was wondering why so many people are born in nov. too =P The in-door thing might be a factor.. very interesting. sth that worths further investigation! hahahah XD
ryc (yes I'm very late I know TwT")
about the little woody!!
哈哈對喔，記得在 BBS 貼圖接龍有看到你提過 =)
I got it from the same place as u did! hehehee~
btw~ i just realized that I haf the same bgm as urs!! o___o omg! 剛進來時還以為弄錯了呢~ 呵呵 (因為之前 surf others' blogs 時通常喇叭都是關的 XD) 沒想到你也有看 Amelie =] I think the movie is okay, but i really like the ost!! esp this one ^^
Posted by 小N | December 13, 2006 1:11 AM
Posted on December 13, 2006 01:11
i believe in asia,
it's more of chinese new year over valentine,
hence lots of november asians :)
and in north america, christmas,
hence august and september babies
Posted by touchfish | December 13, 2006 8:13 AM
Posted on December 13, 2006 08:13
Hehe, interesting theory, i agree more on coincidence because there is no accurate world-wide data or research for this phenomenon. Perhaps, many of your friends have b-day in Nov :)
By the way, Hows going over there? I miss you and Poan, especially Jenny. I hope we can meet again soon :D
Posted by Kimi | December 13, 2006 6:31 PM
Posted on December 13, 2006 18:31
wow...i have been thinking about this problem too..
you know, i have lots of friends are born in December, and i mean a lot
i can name at least 6 just now
if we only talk about asain babies
and i have always believe it's because Valentine's day
but now i am thinking Chinese New Year might have something to do with it too
people say,有錢沒錢,娶個老婆好過年
and they go on honey moon during chinese new yaer vacation and you know...
so i would say, for chinese people, most babies are conceived during mid-Feb to end-Feb
what do you think?
(btw, one of my friends' sister got married last year before chinese new year, and she just dellivered a November baby)
many we should go look up the baby database for taiwan
Posted by shelly | December 13, 2006 8:55 PM
Posted on December 13, 2006 20:55
Hehe, it's very interesting to see different ppl's thoughts. I think if baby booms for Taiwanese/Chinese do occur around November & December, then the Chinese New Year might be a factor.
Personally I think it's more to do with the weather, but I don't know if more babies are conceived during winter time or summer time, cuz I remember I've read a theory before that an increase in temperature increases sex drive...but then I don't think sex drive is related to making babies today.
I think I just need more worldwide data to make a conclusion.
小N~
Yah I think if people are stuck inside during winter time and nothing much they can do, that might be a factor. For areas where the winter may not be so extreme, the weather may not be a factor.
I'm glad that you like the music too :) Actually I love the movie!!
Touchfish~
That's very likely if the data is true for North America and if the baby booms for Taiwanese/Chinese are around Nov/Dec.
Kimi~
Hey long time no see!
I think you're right too. We do need more data. Now we can only assuming.
Shelly~
I've looked for some database for Taiwanese but I didn't find any reliable ones...and the pool is just too small. Like I said up there, I think the theory you made is quite possible.
I can only say that I think, the least possible factor is the last theory. I believe that baby booms are caused by deliberate attempt, but it's not likely that people will want to aim for a specific time of the year and ALL of them end up successful one month or two later. I mean, if the chance of conceiving is the same for every month, it's not going to get greater just because people have been trying for a few months. According to this theory, it might end up no birthday pattern.
Posted by Lemonni | December 14, 2006 12:18 AM
Posted on December 14, 2006 00:18
為什麼我不能留言????
Posted by 知更鳥 | December 16, 2006 1:26 PM
Posted on December 16, 2006 13:26
咦? 可以了ㄝ
Posted by 知更鳥 | December 16, 2006 1:28 PM
Posted on December 16, 2006 13:28
是不是有什麼字不能寫啊?
我一直要留言他都不給我寫....@_@
好啦~我放棄
反正這篇很有趣 @@
Posted by 知更鳥 | December 16, 2006 1:29 PM
Posted on December 16, 2006 13:29
咦...上次我要留言時也是怪怪的耶~
很抱歉喔~I'll report this.
Posted by Lemonni | December 17, 2006 11:20 AM
Posted on December 17, 2006 11:20
love the pix!
Posted by Dollise | December 19, 2006 12:59 PM
Posted on December 19, 2006 12:59